Monday, March 18, 2013

Model Portfolio for Professional Athletes


Securites            50% - 65%

Alternatives        15% - 20%

Real Estate           7% - 12%

Private Equity      5%

From ESPN 30 for 30: Broke


Thursday, March 7, 2013

Old University of Chicago Graduate School of Business Reading List



Recommended Reading
· Must Read (listed again below). We recommend you read these books during your first year leading up to
internship recruiting
Cunningham, Larry The Essays of Warren Buffet: Lessons for Corporate America
Lynch, Peter. One Up On Wall Street
Schilit, Howard. Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks
Greenwald, Bruce Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and beyond
When time permits…
· Behavioral Finance, Psychology
Shefrin, Hersh. Beyond Greed and Fear
Smith, Adam. The Money Game
Cialdini, Robert. Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
Gilovich & Belsky Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes
Le Bon, Gustave The Crowd - A Study of the Popular Mind.
Plous, Scott. The Psychology and Judgment of Decision Making
Gilovich, Thomas. How We Know What Isn’t So
Haugen, Robert. The Inefficient Stock Market
Haugen, Robert The New Finance: Overreaction, Complexity and Uniqueness
Russo, J. Decision Traps: 10 Barriers to Brilliant Decision Making
Taleb, Nassim Fooled by Randomness
Tobias & McKay Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Claxton, Guy. Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind
Pring, Martin. Investment Psychology Explained: Classic Strategies to Beat the Market
Wright, Robert The Moral Animal: Why We Are the Way We Are
· Historical and biographical
Baruch, Bernard. Baruch: My Own Story
Brooks, John. Go-Go Years: Drama and Crashing Finale of Wall Street’s Bullish 60s
Byrne, John. Chainsaw: The Notorious Career of Al Dunlap
Garber, Peter. Famous First Bubbles
Giesst, Charles. Wall Street: A History
Gordon, John S. The Great Game
Ellis & Vertin Classic II: Another Investor’s Anthology
Lefevre, Edwin. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Lowenstein, Roger When Genius Failed
Schwager, Jack. Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
Schwager, Jack. The New Market Wizards
Schwed, Fred. Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?
Soros, George. Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve
Steinhardt, Jim. No Bull
Strachman, Daniel Julian Robertson: A Tiger in the Land of Bulls and Bears
Train, John. The Money Masters
Train, John. The New Money Masters
· Economics
Friedman, Milton. Capitalism and Freedom
Friedman, Thomas. The Lexus and the Olive Tree
Hazlitt, Henry. Economics in One Lesson
O’Rourke, PJ. Eat the Rich
· Analysis
Bernstein, Peter. Against the Gods
Collins & Porras Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies
Cunningham, Larry The Essays of Warren Buffet: Lessons for Corporate America
Ellis, Charles. Winning the Loser’s Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing
Fisher, Philip. Common Stock and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings
Graham & Dodd Security Analysis AND The Intelligent Investor
Hagstrom, Robert The Warren Buffett Way
Hagstrom, Robert The Detective and the Investor: Uncovering Investment Techniques from the Legendary
Sleuths
Hagstrom, Robert Investing: The last liberal art.
Lynch, Peter. One Up On Wall Street
Klarman, Seth Margin of safety - Risk averse value investing
Malkiel, Burton. A Random Walk Down Wall Street
Schilit, Howard. Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks
Staley, Kathryn. The Art of Short Selling
· Other
Carnegie, Dale. How To Win Friends and Influence People
Goodspeed, Bennett. The Tao Jones Averages
Hoff, Benjamin. The Tao of Pooh
Hoff, Benjamin. The Te of Piglet
Rand, Ayn. Atlas Shrugged
Wright, Robert. Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny
McCrary, Stuart How to create and manage a hedge fund
http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/student/img/


Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Tip from Joel Greenblatt's You Can Be Stock Market Genius



LEAPS. There is almost no other area of the stock market (with the possible exception of stub stocks) where research and careful analysis can be rewarded as quickly and as generously.


Friday, January 4, 2013

John Burr Williams on what a company is worth


From How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett by Timothy Vick


In 1938, John Burr Williams postulated that a company is worth no less and no more than what owners can take out of it in earnings.  You can determine what a company is worth by calculating what it can earn over its eternal lifetime and adjusting earnings for inflation and the time value of money.  If you estimate that Intel will earn $175 billion over its expected life, after adjusting for inflation and your risk tolerance, then you should be willing to pay up to $175 billion to acquire the whole company.


If Intel had 1.75 billion shares outstanding, each share must reflect the appraised value of the whole and should sell for no more than $100.


To Williams, four concepts are vital to appraising a company:


1.      You must see yourself as an owner of the business and appraise a public company as you would a private enterprise.

2.      You must estimate the company’s future earnings potential.

3.      You must determine whether future earnings will be erratic or a steady “annuity.”

4.      You must adjust the value of future earnings by the time value of your money.




Thursday, January 3, 2013

Benjamin Graham NCAV or Net-Net Working Capital and Intrinsic Value Formula


Benjamin Graham


NCAV or Net-Net Working Capital


NNWC = (Cash & Investments * 100%) + (Accounts Receivable * 75%) + (Inventory * 50%) – Total Liabilities

Intrinsic Value Formula



                                    The formula as described by Graham is as follows:


Value = Current (Normal) Earnings x (8.5 + (2 x Expected Annual Growth Rate)


Where the Expected Annual Growth Rate "should be that expected over the next seven to ten years."


The value of 8.5 appears to be the P/E ratio of a stock that has zero

growth. It is not clear from the text how Graham arrived at this figure, but it is likely it represents the y-intercept of a normal distribution of a series of various P/E values plotted against corresponding growth figures.


Graham's formula takes no account of prevailing interest rates; at the time he last updated the chapter, around 1971, the yield on AAA Corporate Bonds was around 4.4%. We can adjust the formula by normalizing it for current bond yields by multiplying by a factor of 4.40/{AAA Corporate Bond Yield}. Bond yields

can be found on Yahoo!


Let’s take a real-life example, using IBM. According to Yahoo!, the expected growth rate for IBM over the next 5 years is 10% per annum (note data is only available for 5 years ahead rather than the 7-10 years Graham states, but this should not make a significant difference). EPS for IBM over the last 12 months is $4.95. Taking these values and plugging in the 20 year AA Corporate bond yield of 5.76% (AA Bond yields are higher than AAA so will give a more conservative estimate of IV) in our adjustment gives:


Intrinsic Value = 4.95 x (8.5 + (2 x 10) x (4.40/5.76) = $107.77


IBM is currently trading at around $91, so it is currently slightly undervalued.



Building The Core With Vanguard: Domestic Bonds http://t.co/xmmU3xlKLn $AGG $BSV $SCHZ $VTI $BND




Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Warren Buffett on CNBC – The Billionaire Next Door


December 27, 2006


Warren Buffett on CNBC – The Billionaire Next Door

Interviewed by Liz Claman


Family had grocery store he worked at.  The store was in his family for 100 years.  From 1869 until 1969 when his uncle retired.


Started out selling Wrigley’s chewing gum and Coca-Cola he bought from his grandfather.


He bought his first stock at age 11.  City Service Preferred stock.  He said he doesn’t know why he wasted so much time before then.


Bought a farm at the age of 14 using money he had saved from paper routes.


What he’s looking for in a business?


  1. Something he can understand.  Something in his “circle of competence”.


                                                               i.      He doesn’t understand what car company, software or chemical company will win 10 years from now.  But he does understand that Snicker’s Bar will be the number one candy bar in the U.S. just as it has been for the last 40 years.


  1. Durable Competitive Advantage


                                                               i.      A business that will dominate for what appears to be forever.


  1. An Honest and Able management.


  1. A price that he wants to pay.



Berkshire Hathaway has acquired 68 subsidiaries since Buffett took control in 1964.


            1964 - National Indemnity Insurance

            1972 - See’s Candies

            1983 -  Nebraska Furniture Mart

            1989 – Borsheim’s Fine Jewelry

            1998 – Dairy Queen, Geico, NetJets, General Re

            2002 – Fruit of the Loom

            2006 – Iscar Metalworking Companies (1st foreign holding)



The average person today lives better than John D. Rockefeller.


The ultimate luxury is getting to do what you love to do everyday.  Particularly if you can do it with terrific people around you.


Liz Claman mentions that Warren has stayed honest by doing what he loves.  Warren laughed and said that know one will really know if he was honest in a sense.  Because he never had two kids at home sick and not enough money to feed them.  You will never know whether he would have held up a liquor store because he never had to.


Buffett Playbook


  1. Rule #1, Don’t Lose Money.


  1. Rule #2, Don’t forget rule #1.


  1. Look for unique companies that are hard to replicate.  They have a moat around the business.


  1. Circle of Competence.  Do what you know.


Pat Dorsey’s The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing

Do your homework.
Find economic moats.
Have a margin of safety.
Hold for the long haul.

Know when to sell.